Predicting Good Probabilities with Supervised Learning, Alexandru Niculescu-Mizil, Rich Caruana, 2005Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML)DOI: 10.1145/1102351.1102432 - Classic paper outlining reliability diagrams, expected calibration error, and methods like isotonic regression for probability calibration in machine learning.
On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks, Chuan Guo, Geoff Pleiss, Yu Sun, Kilian Q. Weinberger, 2017Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML)DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.1706.04599 - Examines calibration issues in deep neural networks and proposes temperature scaling as a simple yet effective post-processing method to improve calibration.